{"id":10857,"date":"2020-03-31T14:33:28","date_gmt":"2020-03-31T18:33:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.brainstation.io\/?p=10857"},"modified":"2020-05-07T12:35:50","modified_gmt":"2020-05-07T16:35:50","slug":"using-data-to-track-the-covid-19-outbreak-in-canada","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/brainstation.io\/blog\/using-data-to-track-the-covid-19-outbreak-in-canada","title":{"rendered":"Using Data to Track the COVID-19 Outbreak in Canada"},"content":{"rendered":"

Colin Fraser<\/a>, a Data Scientist at Facebook (and a former Lead Educator at BrainStation) has recently publish a dashboard that tracks the growth of COVID-19 across Canadian provinces. The data comes from the Johns Hopkins COVID-19 resource center, which they\u2019ve shared publicly in this GitHub repo<\/a>.<\/p>\n

While Fraser cannot guarantee the accuracy of this information with the rapid progression of the virus, the data should be consistent with the Johns Hopkins dashboard.<\/p>\n

\n

Current Tally<\/h2>\n

According to the latest data, as of March 30th, 2020 there have been 7,385 confirmed cases reported in Canada, resulting in 79 deaths.<\/p>\n

Breakdowns by province are below.<\/p>\n

\n

Confirmed Cases<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Province<\/th>\nMost Recent Data<\/th>\nConfirmed Cases<\/th>\nNew Cases<\/th>\nAverage Daily Growth Rate (Last seven days)<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Alberta<\/td>\n2020-03-30<\/td>\n661<\/td>\n40<\/td>\n12.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
British Columbia<\/td>\n2020-03-30<\/td>\n970<\/td>\n86<\/td>\n11.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Manitoba<\/td>\n2020-03-30<\/td>\n96<\/td>\n24<\/td>\n27.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
New Brunswick<\/td>\n2020-03-30<\/td>\n68<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n24.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Newfoundland<\/td>\n2020-03-30<\/td>\n148<\/td>\n13<\/td>\n34.9%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Northwest Territories<\/td>\n2020-03-30<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n0.0%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Nova Scotia<\/td>\n2020-03-30<\/td>\n127<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n17.9%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ontario<\/td>\n2020-03-30<\/td>\n1,706<\/td>\n351<\/td>\n19.1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Prince Edward Island<\/td>\n2020-03-30<\/td>\n18<\/td>\n7<\/td>\n33.2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Quebec<\/td>\n2020-03-30<\/td>\n3,430<\/td>\n590<\/td>\n28.2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Saskatchewan<\/td>\n2020-03-30<\/td>\n156<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n14.1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Yukon<\/td>\n2020-03-30<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n8.3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n
\n

Deaths<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Province<\/th>\nMost Recent Data<\/th>\nTotal Deaths<\/th>\nNew Deaths<\/th>\nAverage Daily Growth Rate (Last seven days)<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Alberta<\/td>\n2020-03-30<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n21.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
British Columbia<\/td>\n2020-03-30<\/td>\n19<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n5.8%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Manitoba<\/td>\n2020-03-30<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n0<\/td>\nNA<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Newfoundland<\/td>\n2020-03-30<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n1<\/td>\nNA<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ontario<\/td>\n2020-03-30<\/td>\n31<\/td>\n10<\/td>\n28.0%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Quebec<\/td>\n2020-03-30<\/td>\n22<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n32.9%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Saskatchewan<\/td>\n2020-03-30<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n2<\/td>\nNA<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n

Confirmed Cases<\/h2>\n
\n

Confirmed Cases Since The 10th Case<\/h3>\n

This chart shows the number of confirmed cases in each province, with the number of days since the 10th case on the x-axis. I\u2019ve included New York State and Washington State for comparison, since those are two of the major US outbreaks. The dashed lines indicate how this chart would look if doubling the number of cases took two, three, or four days.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Growth Rate in Confirmed Cases Since 10th Confirmed Case<\/h3>\n

This plot shows the daily growth rate of confirmed cases since the 10th confirmed case. We want this to go to zero.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Confirmed Cases Over Time<\/h3>\n

This chart shows the number of confirmed cases on each date.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n

Deaths<\/h2>\n
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Deaths Since 3rd Death<\/h3>\n

This chart shows the number of deaths since the third date in each province or state.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Deaths Over Time<\/h3>\n

This shows the number of deaths on each date (min three deaths). Note, I am not sure why Quebec dips for a few days, but this is consistent with the data provided by the JHU dashboard.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n

\u201cThe Curve\u201d<\/h2>\n

This plot shows the number of active cases (cumulative confirmed cases minus deaths and recoveries) over time since the date of the tenth confirmed case in each location. This is \u201cthe curve\u201d that you\u2019ve heard about trying to flatten. Note that a different y-axis is drawn for each location.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

Country Totals<\/h2>\n

This chart shows the number of confirmed cases since the tenth confirmed cases in a few selected countries.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Data<\/h2>\n

The data that I used to produce these charts is below.<\/p>\n