Media Predictions 2010 – Deloitte

Every year for the past 8 years, the Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Global Technology, Media & Telecommunications Industry Group publishes their predictions for the technology, media and telecommunications sectors.  2010 is their 9th year in publishing these predictions. 

In their media predictions for 2010 they listed eight items:

  1. Television and radio schedule stay supreme
  2. Shift to online advertising continues
  3. eReaders fill a nich, but eBooks fly off the (virtual) shelves
  4. Publishing fights back
  5. TV and the Web belong together, but on different screens
  6. Music rising
  7. Video on demand takes off
  8. 3D TV

With the recent news of the launch of Apple’s iPad, let’s tale a look at the topic of eReaders and eBooks.  Typically, eReaders are single use devices.  This means that all your eReader does is….allow you to read books and other printed material, but now on an electronic device.  But that’s all it does.  Yes, there are bookmarking capabilities as well as cool features such as highlighting. But you can’t talk on eReader with your friend.  You can’t even surf the web or check your email. 

On the other hand, eBooks can be read virtually anywhere: smartphones, laptops, desktops, netbooks and even other eReaders.

Here’s what Deloitte has to say:

Although eReaders are likely to experience very strong growth in 2010, the claim of a “breakout success” may be hared to live up to.  The devices have been available in various versions since 2004. But with roughly 1 percent household penetration today, the eReader’s adoption curve lags those achieved by portable and connected consumer devices, such as Internet-connected smartphones, GPS units, and netbooks.

I also had a chance to speak with Mike Lee of Rogers Ventures earlier this month.  I asked him about his thoughts on eReaders.  Here were his thoughts:

 

Here’s my two cents.  People will want to read books.  Electronic versions such as eBooks will see a pronounced jump in the number of people reading as well as the number of books being read.  Same thing happened with audio books.  eReaders were primarily the first tools that allowed the masses to read eBooks.  And I think 2010 will see a continued growth in eReaders.  However, with Apple’s iPad, and other up-and-coming tablet devices, coming to market watch for a pronounced drop in sales by the end of the year and going into 2011.

Here’s a sneak peek at Apple’s iPad iBook application from Steve Jobs:

What are your thoughts on eBooks and eReaders?  Will the iPad and other Tablets make a difference in the use of eReaders?  As always, we love to hear your thoughts.

For information on these and other predictions please refer to www.tmtpredictions.ca.