Statistician Believes Google+ Can Hit 400,000,000 Users in 2012

Google is adding over 600,000 new users to its Google+ social networking website every day, says independent analysis. According to Google+’s self-proclaimed “unofficial statistician” Paul Allen – who is notably the founder of Ancestry.com – the social network could crack 400 million users by the end of 2012.

Google+ started as an invite-only beta in the summer and launched to the public in September. In October, Google confirmed the site had cracked 40 million users. Google has thus far leveraged the popularity of its existing users on Gmail, Android, and Google search to gain traction in user growth.

However, most believe Google+ is a barren wasteland regardless of raw user count. Studies have suggested that less than one in five users are actually active – the lowest by far of any major social network- and that the average user spends less than one minute per day on the site. Plus, a Google engineer lambasted Google+… on Google+. 

400 million users would be half of Facebook’s user count. Facebook, the world’s largest social network, started in 2004 and and took several years to reach the 400 million mark. However, Facebook also started from nothing, while Google has hundreds of millions of users to build momentum with. Still, Paul’s number seems far-fetched. Either way, the quality must be there in order to validate the quantity – because one-fifth of 400 million users isn’t that many, and one minute a day isn’t that much engagement.

Photo: Business Insider