Adobe Says U.S. Holiday Online Sales Will Top $100 Billion

Adobe is predicting that Americans will break the $100-billion mark for online shopping in a two-month period this year.

The technology company expects this year’s online sales to reach $107.4 billion—up nearly 14 per cent from 2016. However, in-store retail purchases are also expected to grow 10 per cent.

Adobe leveraged its machine learning technology dubbed Sensei to pull data-driven insights for one trillion visits to over 4,500 retail sites and 55 million SKUs. Roughly 80 per cent of all online transactions are expected to come from the largest 100 web retailers in the country.

“This year’s record-breaking online holiday shopping season is built on the strength of the big players,” said Mickey Mericle, Adobe’s vice president of marketing and insights.

The findings are part of Adobe’s 2017 predictions report on the online shopping behaviours of Americans between November 1 and December 31, two months that include American Thanksgiving, Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and the hotly anticipated post-Christmas sales.

“We predict the biggest retailers with wide selections, easy shopping experiences and free shipping, to drive online holiday growth this year. Still, there is opportunity for savvy small retailers to win, specifically with mobile experiences,” Mericle said.

“As revenue growth plateaus, retailers will be competing hard for customers by offering steep discounts and providing a seamless customer journey,” he added.

Between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday, Adobe predicts $19.7 billion in sales in the four-day period alone; counting for one out of every six dollars spent online this holiday season.

This year’s Cyber Monday is pegged to be the biggest online shopping day in history, generating $6.6 billion in sales. That’s up 16.5 per cent from last year. Thanksgiving Day sales are expected to hit $2.8 billion, a 15 per cent increase.

Based on this year’s findings, Adobe determined the most desired electronics this holiday season are Apple Air Pods, Sony Playstation VR and Oculus Rift, along with home assistants like Amazon Echo and Google Home.

For the first time, Adobe predicts that more retailer web traffic will come from smartphones and tablets rather than desktop computers. But that doesn’t mean consumers are buying on mobile—desktop purchases are set to count for more than two-thirds of holiday sales.