Analyst Says There’s a 30% Chance RIM Shares Will Hit $43 Next Year

While the haunting words of James Faucette still linger in our minds—”BlackBerry 10 is likely to be dead on arrival“—an even more salient analyst has come forth to sing a different tune.

Jefferies & Co analyst Peter Misek helped Research In Motion shares crack double digits for the first time in five months after he upgraded the stock from “underperform” to “hold,” suggesting there is an up to 30% chance that RIM will succeed.

In the case of such success, Peter sees shares skyrocketing up to $43 next year. That would be a growth rate of more than 300%, though shares would still be down significantly from the Canadian company’s high of more than $140 in 2008.

Why does Peter think RIM can make a comeback now? Carriers’ reception to BB10, mostly. The analyst argues that carriers do indeed want a third smartphone platform to succeed in the market, and that BB10 has a legitimate chance of being that platform.

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“We have been surprised by the strongly positive initial feedback on BB10 from carriers,” Peter said. “We expected a more muted response, given BB10 is two years late and RIM’s market share has plunged from 20% to 5%.”

“Our theory,” he concluded, “is that carriers see BB10 as one of their last chances to avoid being locked into a long-term smartphone OS duopoly.”

Photo: Eric Risberg, Associated Press